Dr. Marcel Dirsus

And even if outsiders decide to use these means, the outcome is often terrible. So the track record of foreign and post regime change, for example, is abysmal. It's not just Iraq. The overall track record is absolutely tragic.

No, there's other examples. So when researchers looked at this, they looked at dozens and dozens of American regime change operations. They found that just above one in 10 of them led to the creation of a democracy. Japan, Germany, there are a couple of others. So it's not like it never works, but it rarely works. And there's a bit of a paradox here.

No, there's other examples. So when researchers looked at this, they looked at dozens and dozens of American regime change operations. They found that just above one in 10 of them led to the creation of a democracy. Japan, Germany, there are a couple of others. So it's not like it never works, but it rarely works. And there's a bit of a paradox here.

No, there's other examples. So when researchers looked at this, they looked at dozens and dozens of American regime change operations. They found that just above one in 10 of them led to the creation of a democracy. Japan, Germany, there are a couple of others. So it's not like it never works, but it rarely works. And there's a bit of a paradox here.

All things equal, it is easiest, quote unquote, easiest to bring democracies to countries that are functioning institutions and that have a history of democracy. And conversely, it is most difficult to bring democracy to countries that don't have that history and that don't have functioning institutions.

All things equal, it is easiest, quote unquote, easiest to bring democracies to countries that are functioning institutions and that have a history of democracy. And conversely, it is most difficult to bring democracy to countries that don't have that history and that don't have functioning institutions.

All things equal, it is easiest, quote unquote, easiest to bring democracies to countries that are functioning institutions and that have a history of democracy. And conversely, it is most difficult to bring democracy to countries that don't have that history and that don't have functioning institutions.

But if you are, let's say, an American president and you make that decision on whether you go to war or not, the problem is that those same institutions that make democratization more likely also generate military effectiveness. So if you're Germany during World War II, for example, part of the reasons why the German military was so powerful is because Germany functioned.

But if you are, let's say, an American president and you make that decision on whether you go to war or not, the problem is that those same institutions that make democratization more likely also generate military effectiveness. So if you're Germany during World War II, for example, part of the reasons why the German military was so powerful is because Germany functioned.

But if you are, let's say, an American president and you make that decision on whether you go to war or not, the problem is that those same institutions that make democratization more likely also generate military effectiveness. So if you're Germany during World War II, for example, part of the reasons why the German military was so powerful is because Germany functioned.

obviously did absolutely terrible things.

obviously did absolutely terrible things.

obviously did absolutely terrible things.

If you are an outsider in this situation, you can either invade a strong country that might actually turn into a democracy, or you can invade a weak country that is unlikely to really turn into a democracy. And given that these sort of strong countries can lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, you're probably not going to do it unless national security is at stake.

If you are an outsider in this situation, you can either invade a strong country that might actually turn into a democracy, or you can invade a weak country that is unlikely to really turn into a democracy. And given that these sort of strong countries can lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, you're probably not going to do it unless national security is at stake.

If you are an outsider in this situation, you can either invade a strong country that might actually turn into a democracy, or you can invade a weak country that is unlikely to really turn into a democracy. And given that these sort of strong countries can lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths, you're probably not going to do it unless national security is at stake.

Even though presidents say, yeah, we're doing this for democracy, we're doing this for the good of humanity or whatever, they rarely do because it's usually not worth it.

Even though presidents say, yeah, we're doing this for democracy, we're doing this for the good of humanity or whatever, they rarely do because it's usually not worth it.

Even though presidents say, yeah, we're doing this for democracy, we're doing this for the good of humanity or whatever, they rarely do because it's usually not worth it.

I think both countries were initially occupied, right? So they couldn't really decide much because in the case of Germany, the other allies were in charge. Even in that case, right? So even once you've beaten these adversaries, it's really difficult to actually go through then creating a democracy. So let me give you one example and one difficulty that is universal to all of this.