Dr Norman Swan

speaker

26,995 appearances 288 recordings 3 series first heard Apr 2006 last heard 15 Sep

Dr Norman Swan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 10 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 3.

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What's That Rash? · What do zero-COVID states have ahead of them? · 12 Oct 2021 podcast

And that's gonna r reduce the risk hugely in terms of people coming in with the virus, but not completely. matched

Let's assume that there are no controls. matched

So there's no contact tracing, no testing. matched

So somebody arrives off the plane with COVID-19. matched

It's v it's hard to predict because one person could get off the plane in Launceston, they could go and visit their mum and dad. matched

Um, they don't go out very much and then they go home and their mom and dad they haven't got a very big family and they go home on the plane and all they've done and their mother and d their elderly mum and dad are vaccinated, they don't spread it to anybody and then they go home. matched

Um a young person could get off the plane with lots of friends in Tasmania or Perth or Adelaide and they go out and party and they're quite and they're really at peak infection when they do that and you get a major spreading event and then it's off and running. matched

Then you could have or you could have a dozen people getting off planes in Launceston and Hobart all at the same time, and then you've got multiple spot fires all over Hobart and Launceston. matched

In which case it will go nuts. matched

Albeit in a highly vaccinated population, there will still be significant numbers of people who are unvaccinated in whom it can spread. matched

And it will spread within vaccinated people as well, even though they won't get sick. matched

So all those variables apply. matched

And eventually somebody will get off a plane who is going to be as going to a super spreading event, who's got matched

got a lot of virus on board. matched

So it's gonna happen eventually. matched

And the way it will w it will go, you've seen it the way it works in Victoria and in New South Wales, you will get exponential growth. matched

But it will be slow slower exponential growth than you saw in those states because you've got very high levels of vaccination. matched

So you're going to see a steady growth. matched

It's not as if you're gonna have matched

Two cases one day and five hundred a week later. matched

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