Dr. Richard Moulange

speaker

1,784 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 31 Mar

Dr. Richard Moulange’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #241 – Richard Moulange on how now AI codes viable genomes from scratch and outperforms virologists at lab work — what could go wrong? · 31 Mar 2026 podcast

But also just more expertise, more know-how, both in AI and biology, more ability to conduct offensive cyber operations against AI companies.

Or as you go up, it gets worse and worse and worse.

Yeah, that is a great question.

I'll note, yeah, if we say we're going to talk about a biological weapon run by the modern Russian Federation,

I would be here deferring to the US Department of State's annual arms control compliance reports, where repeatedly now for a number of years, they do assess that Russia has an active biological weapons program.

But I am not.

I'm not privy to the information that led to that attribution.

And so I'm deferring in some sense to that.

I just want to make that very clear.

So the four countries that the Department of State discusses are, yes, Iran, North Korea, the Russian Federation, and the People's Republic of China.

But in the case of China, they are careful to say that, I think they note that just China has really...

impressive biological capabilities, but they do not officially assess as having an active program.

That is the public statement, whereas they do assess that, in fact, the other three countries all have actively pursued biological weapons in the last few years, which is very bad.

Yes, so where might be the most uplift?

And that was part of what our paper was trying to answer.

The bottom line is we think that the uplift really comes in the middle.

Roughly because the most highly capable groups already can do a lot of really terrible things.

And so at least in 2024, we were looking out on a two-year time horizon to mid-26 about how AI could uplift things.

I think things have changed a lot.

I think a lot of what we've said, unfortunately, has been validated.

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