Dr. Steven Novella

speaker

11,445 appearances 18 recordings 2 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard yesterday

Dr. Steven Novella’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 18 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 5.

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The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe · The Skeptics Guide #1063 - Nov 22 2025 podcast

So this is overall not a very confidence building, right? voice-verified

Not a good sign. voice-verified

So the authors themselves conclude that the evidence is low to moderate confidence. voice-verified

That would be like more of an evidence-based evaluation. voice-verified

I would say adding the other things that I just said, the mixed results and the patterns that we're seeing, to me that's low confidence. voice-verified

And they say that we need larger, robust clinical trials to validate it. voice-verified

So, again, that's code for this is not ready for prime time. voice-verified

These results have not been established. voice-verified

So we can also look at this from the lens of if we take 100 things, medical claims, where there's this level of evidence, how many of them pan out to actually work? voice-verified

And you're probably down in the 1% to 2% range. voice-verified

And there has been some research to back that up. voice-verified

It's hard to say it's exactly analogous, but when we generally ask that question, the answer is quite low, usually single digits in terms of percentages. voice-verified

Part of the reason is because there's a huge false positive bias in the literature. voice-verified

So if you have preliminary data, mostly small studies with mixed results, and you account for a significant positive research bias, then statistically speaking, and again, historically this is true, most of these things don't pan out. voice-verified

And, of course, the supplement industry has the flavor of the weak approach, right? voice-verified

It takes 10, 20, 30 years to do the research to really tell if something is effective or not. voice-verified

That gives them 20 to 30 years to market it. voice-verified

And then by the time it gets shot down, they're on to the next thing. voice-verified

So to me, this is just the next in a sort of an endless sequence of brain supplements that are supposed to help your brain function better, make you smarter, whatever, the smart pill thing. voice-verified

and none of them really pan out. voice-verified

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