Dwarkesh Patel

My expectation is that it like blows up because I think true AGI, and I'm not talking about LLM coding bots, I'm talking about like actual, this is like a replacement of a human in a server, is qualitatively different from these other productivity improving technologies.

Because it's labor itself, right?

I think we live in a very labor-constrained world.

If you talk to any startup founder or any person, you can just be like, okay, what do you need more of?

You just need really talented people.

And if you just have billions of extra people who are inventing stuff, integrating themselves, making companies' bottoms start to finish, that feels qualitatively different from just like...

A single technology.

It's sort of like just asking if you get 10 billion extra people on the planet.

Yeah.

I guess you have a machine which is spitting out more things like that at potentially a faster pace.

And so we historically have examples of the growth regime changing where, like, you went from, you know, 0.2% growth to 2% growth.

So it seems very plausible to me that, like, a machine which is then spitting out the next self-driving car and the next internet and whatever.

I think what often ends up being misleading in these conversations is people, I don't like to use the word intelligence in this context, because intelligence implies you think like, oh, a super intelligence will be sitting, there'll be a single super intelligence sitting in a server and it'll like divine how to come up with new technologies and inventions that causes this explosion.

And that's not what I'm imagining when I'm imagining 20% growth.

I'm imagining that there's billions of, you know, basically like very smart human-like minds potentially, or that's all that's required.

But the fact that there's hundreds of millions of them, billions of them, each individually growing,

making new products, figuring out how to integrate themselves into the economy.

Just the way if like a highly experienced smart immigrant came to the country, you wouldn't need to like figure out how we integrate them in the economy.

They figure it out.

They could start a company.