Dwarkesh Patel

So you might see this thing where, like, your wages go, like, whoop, and then until you get to 90%, and then, like, just like that.

And then the last 1% is gone.

And I wonder if we're seeing similar things with radiology or salaries of call center workers or anything like that.

I think there's been evidence that that's already been happening generally in companies that have been adopting AI, which I think is quite surprising.

And I also find what was really surprising, okay, AGI, right?

Like a thing which would do everything and, okay, we'll take out physical work.

It's a thing which should be able to do all knowledge work.

And what you would have naively anticipated that the way this regression would happen is like you would take a little task that –

consultant is doing, you take that out of the bucket.

You take a little task that an accountant is doing, you take that out of the bucket.

And then you're just doing this across all knowledge work.

But instead, if we do believe we're on the path of AGI with the current paradigm, the progression is very much not like that.

At least...

It just does not seem like consultants and accounts and whatever are getting like huge productive improvement.

It's very much like programmers are like getting more and more chills of the way of their work.

If you look at the revenues of these companies, discounting just like normal chat revenue, which I think is like, I don't know, that's similar to like Google or something.

just looking at API revenues, it's like dominated by coding, right?

So this thing which is general, quote unquote, which should be able to do any knowledge work, is just overwhelmingly doing only coding.

And it's a surprising way that you would expect like the AGI to be deployed.

I actually, I'm not sure if that alone explains it because...