Dwarkesh
speaker
1,722 appearances
5 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 25 Nov
Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.
Appearances
Well, we don't know.
Whatever claim you're making about that is something where you would expect there to be a lot of out-of-model error, is where you would expect somebody must be making a pretty definite claim that you want to challenge.
So I don't think there's a neutral position where you can just say, well, given that out-of-model error is really high and we don't know anything, let's just choose that.
I think we are trying to take... I know this sounds crazy because if you read our document, all sorts of bizarre things happen.
It's probably the weirdest...
couple of years that have ever been but we're trying to take almost in some sense a conservative position where the trends don't change nobody does an insane thing nothing that we have no evidence to think will happen happens and the way that the ai intelligence explosion dynamics work are just so weird that in order to have nothing happen you need to have a lot of crazy things happen
Everything we've talked about has happened before.
Algorithmic progress already doubles like every year or so.
So it's not insane to think that algorithmic progress can contribute to these compute things.
In terms of general speed up, we're already at like a thousand times research speed up multiplier compared to the Paleolithic or something.
So like...
From the point of view of anyone in most of history, we are going at a blindingly insane pace.
And all that we're saying here is that it's not going to stop, is that the same trend that has caused us to have a thousand times speed-up multiplier relative to past eras, and not even the Paleolithic, like what happened in the century between, I don't know, 600 and 700 AD, I'm sure there are things, I'm sure historians can point them out,
Then you look at the century between 1900 and 2000, and it's just completely qualitatively different.
Of course, there are models of whether that's stagnated recently or what's going on here.
We can talk about those.
We can talk about why we expect for the intelligence explosion to be an antidote to that kind of stagnation.
But nothing we're saying is that different from what has already happened.
We're not sure about that actually.
So according to one of these models is just a hyperbola.
Showing 961–980 of 1,722 · page 49 of 87
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