Dwarkesh
speaker
1,722 appearances
5 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 25 Nov
Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.
Appearances
I think if you were to force the AI to do this in a reasonable way, or you were to train the AI such that it itself could come up with the plan of going through this in some kind of heuristic-laden way, you could potentially equal humans.
I think it might be useful to think of our timelines as being like 2070, 2100.
It's just that the last 50 to 70 years of that all happened during the year 2027 to 2028 because we are going through this intelligence explosion.
Like I think if I asked you, could we solve this problem by the year 2100, you would say, oh yeah, by 2100, absolutely.
And we're just saying that the year 2100 might happen earlier than you expect because we have this research progress multiplier.
This has been my experience working with the team.
As I point out like five different things, are you sure you're taking this into account?
Are you sure you're taking this into account?
And first of all, 99% of the time he says, yes, we have a supplement on it.
But even when he doesn't say that, he's like, yeah, that's one reason it could go wrong.
slower than that, here are 10 reasons it could go faster.
I think that it's a question of, like...
what is your default option or what are you comparing it to?
I think that naively people think like, well, every particular thing is potentially wrong.
So let's just have a default path where nothing ever happens.
And I think that
That has been the most consistently wrong prediction of all.
I think in order to have nothing ever happen, you actually need a lot to happen.
You need suddenly AI progress that has been going at this constant rate for so long stops.
Why does it stop?
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