Dwarkesh
speaker
1,722 appearances
5 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 25 Nov
Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.
Appearances
Everything is along the same curve.
Another model is that there are these things like the literal Cambrian explosion.
If you want to take this very far back, go full Ray Kurzweil.
The literal Cambrian explosion, the agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution as phase changes.
When I look at the economic modeling of this, my impression is the economists think that we don't have good enough data to be sure whether this is all one smooth process or whether it's a series of phase changes.
When it is one smooth process, the smooth process is often a hyperbola that shoots to infinity in weird ways.
We don't think it's going to shoot to infinity.
We think it's going to hit bottlenecks.
Yeah, we think it's going to hit bottlenecks the same as all these previous processes.
The last time this hit a bottleneck, if you take the hyperbola view, is in like 1960 when humans stopped reproducing at the same rate they were reproducing before.
We hit a population bottleneck, the usual population to ideas flywheel stopped working, and then we stagnated for a while.
if you can create a country of geniuses in a data center, as I think Dario Amadei put it, then you no longer have this population bottleneck and you're just expecting continuation of those pre-1960 trends.
So I realize all of these historical hyperbolas are also kind of weird, also kind of theoretical, but I don't think we're saying anything that there isn't models for which have previously seemed to work for long historical periods.
Yeah, and then I think the addition to that is the question, then why do we have the intelligence explosion?
And the answer is a combination of that speedup and the speedup in serial thought speed.
Yeah.
You're comparing it kind of to two different things.
One of them is literal genetic evolution in the African savannah, and the other is the cultural evolution that we've gone through since then.
And I think there will be AI equivalents to both.
So the literal genetic evolution is that our minds adapted to be more amenable to cooperation during that time.
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