Dwarkesh

That is kind of my model is that we have something which is smarter than Elon Musk, better at optimizing things than Elon Musk.

We have like 10,000 parts in a rocket supply chain.

How many of those parts can Elon personally like yell at people to optimize?

We could have a different copy of the superintelligence optimizing every single part full time.

I think that's just a really big speed up.

Makes sense.

Let me ask you a question.

If you accept the manufacturing numbers, let's say a million robots a month, a year after the superintelligence, and let's say also some comparable number, 10,000 a month or something of automated biology labs,

automated whatever you need to invent the next equivalent of x-ray crystallography or something do you feel like that would be enough that you're doing enough things in the world that you could expand progress this quickly or do you feel like even with that amount of manufacturing there's still going to be some other bottleneck

Yeah, this is also maybe getting too far into the godlike thing and too far away from the human concept handles.

But number one, I think we rely a lot in our scenario on this idea of research taste.

So you have a thousand different things that you could try when you're trying to create the next steam engine or whatever.

Partly you get this by...

bumbling about and having accidents and some of those accidents are productive there are questions of like what kind of bumbling you're doing where you're working what kind of accidents you let yourself get into and then like what directed experiments do you do and some humans are better than others at that um

And then I also think at this point, it is worth thinking about like what simulations they'll have available.

Like if you have a physics simulation available, then all of these real world bottlenecks don't matter as much.

Obviously, you can't have a complete perfect physics simulation available.

But I mean, even right now, we're using simulations to design a lot of things.

And once you're super intelligent, probably have access to much better simulations than we have right now.

That's rare.