Dwarkesh

I would also point out that even when we make these random fortuitous discoveries, it is usually like an extremely smart professor who's been working on something vaguely related for years in a first world country.

Like it's not randomly distributed across everyone in the world.

You get more lottery tickets for these discoveries when you are intelligent, when you have good technology, when you're doing good work.

And part of what we're expecting is, yeah, like,

The best example I can think of is that Ozempic was discovered by looking at Gila monster venom.

And like, yeah, maybe the AIs will decide using their superior research taste and good planning that the best thing to do is just catalog every single biomolecule in the world and look at it really hard.

But that's something you can do better if you have all of this compute, if you have all of this intelligence, rather than just kind of waiting to see what things the U.S.

government might fund normal fallible human researchers to do.

One more thing I'll interject.

I think you make a great point that discoveries don't always come from where we think.

Like NVIDIA originally came from gaming.

So you can't necessarily aim at one part of the economy, expand it separately from everything else.

We do kind of predict that the superintelligences will be somewhat distributed throughout the entire economy, trying to expand everything.

Obviously more effort in things that they care about a lot, like robotics or things that are relevant to an arms race that might be happening later.

But we are predicting that whatever kind of broad-based economic experimentation you need, we are going to have.

If you are the planner and you're trying to do this, first of all, you go to the bottlenecks that are preventing you from doing anything else, like no humanoid robots.

Okay, if you're an AI, you need those to do the experiments you want.

maybe automated biology labs.

So you'll have some amount of time, we say a year.

It could be more or less than that getting these things running.