Dwarkesh
speaker
1,722 appearances
5 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 25 Nov
Dwarkesh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 1.
Appearances
Obviously more effort in things that they care about a lot, like robotics or things that are relevant to an arms race that might be happening later.
But we are predicting that whatever kind of broad-based economic experimentation you need, we are going to have.
If you are the planner and you're trying to do this, first of all, you go to the bottlenecks that are preventing you from doing anything else, like no humanoid robots.
Okay, if you're an AI, you need those to do the experiments you want.
maybe automated biology labs.
So you'll have some amount of time, we say a year.
It could be more or less than that getting these things running.
And then once you have solved those bottlenecks, you gradually expand out to the other bottlenecks until you're integrating and improving all parts of the economy.
One place where I think we disagree with a lot of other people is that, like, Tyler Cowen on your podcast talked about all of the different bottlenecks, all of the regulatory bottlenecks for deployment, all of the reasons why, like, I think this country of geniuses would stay in their data center, maybe coming up with very cool theories, but not being able to integrate into the broader economy.
We expect that probably not to happen because we think that other countries, especially China, will be coming up with superintelligence around the same time.
We think that the arms race framing, which people are already thinking in, will have accelerated by then.
And we think that people both in Beijing and Washington are going to be thinking, well, if we start integrating this with the economy sooner, we're going to get a big leap over our competitors.
And they're both going to do that.
In fact, in our...
scenario, we have the AIs asking for special economic zones where most of the regulations are waived, maybe in areas that aren't suitable for human habitation or where there aren't a lot of humans right now, like the deserts.
They give those areas to the AI.
They bus in human workers.
There were things kind of like this in the bomber
retooling in World War II, where they just built a giant factory kind of in the middle of nowhere, didn't have enough housing for the workers, built the worker housing at the same time as the factories, and then everything went very quickly.
So I think if we don't have that arms race, we're more like, yeah, the geniuses sit in their data center until somebody agrees to let them out and give them permission to do these things.
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