Ed Cole
speaker
303 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 29 Jun
Ed Cole’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
We've done some work at looking at what happens in similar drawdowns in environments where bonds are negatively correlated versus positively correlated.
In 1974, the equity drawdown was the same size as it was in 2008.
So you lost about 40% in world equities in both 1974 and 2008.
In 1974, which was obviously an inflationary environment,
Stocks and bonds were positively correlated and you lost, I think, something close to 30% in a 60-40 portfolio.
In 2008, it was a much, much smaller loss because bonds really, really kicked in.
And I think the point is that what we worry about is not runaway inflation, but rather once the genie's out of the bottle with respect to inflation targets, it's very hard to get it back in again.
And I think you can see that in the UK where we don't have very strong real growth, but in the UK, CPI is running at close to 3%.
Services CPI is at 3.8% and is moving higher.
That's an economy where real GDP growth is about 1%.
This isn't a function of a runaway demand.
The US, which is obviously growing at a much more rapid clip, there's a terrific inflation series run by the San Francisco Fed.
They break down PCE, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at least before Walsh.
We'll see if it changes.
But they break down PCE into what they call cyclical components, so those that are sensitive to the economy, and acyclical components.
Core PCE is running about 3.3% as of the last data for April.
About 60% of that comes from the acyclical components.
And that's been accelerating over the last two or three years.
So you're in an environment in the US where this is this thing about sticky inflation.
Once the genie's out of the bottle, it becomes sticky.
Showing 161–180 of 303 · page 9 of 16
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