Ed Elson

Just to game theory this out, like, let's imagine a world where Trump does not figure out

how to negotiate with Iran, the straight remains closed or the situation persists as it is.

It's hard to tell whether it's closed or open or who's blockading what.

Point is, it's not going great over there.

That's all we know.

If it remains as is, call it for the next six, nine, 12 months, does the number get worse and worse and worse?

Or do you expect that it will plateau at some point?

In other words, it sounds like almost all of this rests on Trump's ability to negotiate a deal with Iran.

It sounds like you are somewhat confident that he will pull that off in the near to medium term.

I guess my question is, why do you feel that way?

I personally don't feel so optimistic about it, but part of it is some of the things that he said about he's not worried about it.

And then he also said this thing about inflation yesterday.

We have a clip of what he said.

He was asked about this inflation report.

I'm just going to play this clip, and I'd love to get your reactions.

So Trump says he loves inflation because they're taking barrels out.

I don't fully understand what he's saying.

Is there any way to make sense of what he's saying?

If you can make sense of it, and I don't think I could, but I certainly can't.

Okay.