Eliza Owen
speaker
379 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard May 2025
Eliza Owen’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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NAB Morning Call · Weekend Edition: Has affordability finally hit home price growth? · 1 Nov 2024
podcast
This is not to say that they're sustainably going backwards just yet.
It's just that they've increased markedly and now are kind of flatlining.
Yeah, that's a good question.
And it's not one I'm completely certain of the answer to.
One thing that is pretty telling is that we've continued to see indicators of softer housing demand, even with stage three tax cuts kicking in, which theoretically should have increased borrowing capacity per households.
Instead, we've seen a slowdown in the combined capital cities clearance rate, days on market is drifting a little bit higher, and of course capital growth has been slowing.
uh through to the month of October as well.
So that suggests to me that even if households do get a bit of a boost from a rate cut, um, with a lot of banks uh projecting that for as early as February next year.
Uh it's unclear whether that will have an immediate impact on housing demand.
It might take a few rate cuts to boost confidence for housing purchases.
But it's also important to remember we're not going back to these pre COVID lows.
Um the cash rate was sitting at one point five percent before uh the RBA started cutting in response to COVID.
It's more likely that we could end up somewhere around three point six percent or three point.
point one percent, um, which wouldn't give us the same strong growth in housing values that we got throughout the twenty tens.
I mean, I think just the resilience of housing markets in the face of all of these economic pressures without rate release, um, and the fact that Sydney has finally joined some of those capital cities that are in a downswing, that makes me feel um
You know, obviously it's not great news for homeowners, but it does make me feel a little more confident in my uh analysis skills that that uh I I thought it might be going that way.
So I think Sydney might be set for a bit of a short term cyclical decline um before we see uh values recover potentially amid a rate reduction uh or or a few rate reductions uh in twenty twenty five.
Thanks, Phil.
Take care.
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