Elliott Abrams

By slaughtering tens of thousands of citizens.

If you're willing to do that, and it's an interesting comparison, the Shah in 1979 was not willing to do that to maintain power.

But if you are willing to do that...

then you're likely to remain in power longer.

Well, today, I think they're very low.

That is, I think the 12-day war of 2025 and this more recent war have hit a number of pieces of their nuclear structure, killed a lot of scientists, hit a lot of laboratories, hit pieces of their industrial base that are related to the nuclear program.

So I would say today, they're probably years away from the ability to build a nuclear bomb.

I've heard people say that it's going to persuade the guys running the country, the IRGC people.

You see, we really need a nuclear weapon because if we had one, they wouldn't have attacked us this way.

That may or may not be true.

I mean, Ukraine is attacking the Russians every day.

And Russia's a big nuclear power, and it hasn't stopped Ukraine.

So it isn't clear that that is a correct view.

But of course, if they hadn't been trying to build a nuclear weapon, they wouldn't have been attacked in the 12-day war, and probably in this war.

So I think it's probably right that the people running the country will, if you will, make a mental note, we really have to get a nuclear weapon.

But, you know, after 2003, when we, the United States, invaded Iraq, they put aside their nuclear weapons program for years.

They might do that again while Trump is president and just say, look, we'll come back to this.

But we have other priorities in the short run.

I do think in the long run they want a nuclear weapon.

That is the way they've behaved for decades.