Emilia Javorsky
speaker
1,653 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2026
last heard 20 Mar
Emilia Javorsky’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 2.
Appearances
Human biology is bounded by the time scales of cells, organisms, and populations.
Even as computational power and medical knowledge increased exponentially, life expectancy gains have been linear at best, and FDA drug approvals have remained flat for decades.
AI companies hang the promise of medical progress on superintelligence, amounting to a country of geniuses in a data center.
Yet there is already an oversupply of human genius scientists.
Now let's investigate cancer mortality rates and how they have changed over time.
The Global Cancer Observatory has tracked 10 major cancer types from 1975 to 2023 and charted the rate of deaths due to cancer per 100,000 people, standardized by age.
In the U.S., the patterns vary dramatically by cancer type.
Lung cancer mortality peaked in the 1990s,
and has declined steeply since.
Hodgkin lymphoma has plummeted from roughly 1 per 100,000 in 1975 to nearly zero by 2020, a genuine success story.
However, most other cancers show stagnation or modest declines.
Pancreatic, breast, and colorectal cancers have remained stubbornly flat or declined only marginally.
This data indicates that medical progress against cancer has been selective and uneven, not comprehensive.
Now let's talk about the annual number of new drugs approved by the FDA in the U.S.
from 1985 to 2024, broken down by category.
New chemical drugs, new vaccines, and other new biologics like antibodies and gene therapies.
The numbers from Our World data reveal a striking absence of growth.
While there are year-to-year fluctuations, the overall approval rate remains relatively flat, with only a slight incline hovering between roughly 20 and 70 new drugs per year across the entire four-decade period.
Despite exponential increases in computational power and medical knowledge, the rate of new drug approvals has not increased systematically.
Fundamentally, superintelligence does not equal super-solutions.
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