Emily Adlam
speaker
1,263 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard 20 Jul
Emily Adlam’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
You will find yourself in one of those branches, but there's no specific physical process which picks which one you're in.
You're just in whatever one you're in.
So that's why it makes sense to think that that should be a case of pure self-locating uncertainty and not superficial self-locating uncertainty.
If I could add a couple of things.
Yeah, right, exactly.
It's the the lack of any selection process which makes it difficult to
to see how you could have a sort of physically grounded notion of what your credences should should be and and thus in the absence of such a thing it looks like anything should be rationally permissible.
Yeah, so what you can do in a self locating case uh is um you know you're you're you're g you're imagining a scenario in which you have your say your ten observers in rooms with different colored doors and you're asked, um, you know, they're they're each supposed to place a bet on the colour of their door and the question is, what what should you bet given that you don't know which one you are?
Um and I think many people people think, well, you should sort of bet with nine tenths odds for blue and one tenth for red.
Um and that is
Right thing to do if what you want to do is maximize the sum of winnings over everybody, if you want to make have the the highest total winnings across all of the observers weighted equally.
But you don't have to do that.
There's no sort of rational obligation to try to maximize the sum of winnings over all observers.
You could say, actually, I prefer for the guy in the blue room to win.
And in that case, uh that what the right thing to do in that case is to bet everyone should bet blue.
Um and so the the point I'm sort of trying to make here is that uh before you can decide what is a sensible bet to place in that situation, you have to make you make a choice about what am I trying to achieve, who would I like to win the bet.
And as soon as you've done that, that will immediately fix what the credences are that you're supposed to have.
That will immediately determine uh if you wanted to maximize winnings over everybody, that means the credences should be equal across everybody.
If you want to maximize winnings for
The blue person, assign probability one to that person.
Showing 321–340 of 1,263 · page 17 of 64
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