Emily Crowley
speaker
135 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2026
last heard 20 Jun
Emily Crowley’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And then essentially what that means is that the procurement environment is effectively constrained.
We don't necessarily have the supply base that's as abundant, which essentially is leading to some effective tightening of capacity.
On the other side of that, we do see demand fundamentals starting to slow.
GDP growth is slowing across most regions.
We are expecting central banks to balance voluntary monetary policy against the inflation impact of the war.
We've seen that today with the ECB initiating an in interest rate increase as well.
That said, even though we have these slowdowns, defense and AI remain major growth engines.
So when we look at the total outlook, there's still a lot of positive and inflationary pressure outside of the war in the Middle East, which we don't expect to slow down.
And then the final point is that CERT remains elevated.
The outlook is very much hinges on the length of the conflict.
A lasting ceasefire requires agreement by multiple parties.
It's gotta be the US, Israel, and Iran.
And it seems despite what we've been hearing, that has been slow to evolve or solidify.
And then also the last piece of risk is that tariffs are still a moving target.
So we've had a number of announcements coming out of February, overturning AIPA, Section 122 put in place.
Now we're starting to see the kind of the end game of imp implementing Section 301 tariffs.
So just to give a kind of high level view of what the demand impact has been.
The oil price shock leads to a higher inflation and lower growth across all regions.
When we look at GDP growth rates, it looks a little bit mixed, what part of that is just based on what countries are implementing.
policies to defray some of the impacts of the war in the Middle East.
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