Emma Gillespie

Australian politics is in a period of serious flux right now, with a new poll reaffirming One Nation's growing popularity and showing the party could become the federal opposition if an election were held today.

A handful of independents are responding with talks to form their own political party.

Today, we are going to unpack what's actually being proposed by the Teals, who's in, who's out, and what it could all mean for the future of Australian democracy.

But first, we're going to hear a quick message from Adela in the TDA team.

Yeah, because, of course, we have Barnaby Joyce, but he defected.

So, yeah, that Farah by-election won One Nation their first elected MP in the lower house.

So this is polling data from Redbridge Group and Accent Research and basically they conducted this survey of over 6,000 Australian voters between the 29th of April and the 14th of May and the forecast is that One Nation, Pauline Hanson's party known for its kind of

further right politics, conservative politics, anti-immigration stance, that it could win between 46 to 59 lower house seats if a federal election were held today.

The median of that prediction is 53 seats.

Now, as we've discussed, that would be a massive jump up from the two that it currently holds in the House of Reps.

And alongside that polling data, the coalition, the Liberal National Coalition,

would be projected to be reduced to 7 to 21 seats.

The median Redbridge data puts the Liberals with winning 12 seats and the Nats at zero.

So this prediction is that the Nationals would be wiped out altogether, which the Accent Research political scientist Sean Ratcliffe called an intense fragmentation that would wipe out the two-party system as we know it.

Absolutely.

And we see that play out in other parts of the world, in European countries in particular, you've got a lot of minor parties that form parliaments.

And

different kinds of coalitions where sometimes three, four, even more parties kind of come together to wield more power.

Well, it would need to win some Labor seats too.

So