The teals' fight against One Nation
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Good morning and welcome to The Daily Oz. It's Tuesday the 26th of May. I'm Emma Gillespie. I'm Billie Fitzsimons. Australian politics is in a period of serious flux right now, with a new poll reaffirming One Nation's growing popularity and showing the party could become the federal opposition if an election were held today. A handful of independents are responding with talks to form their own political party. Today, we are going to unpack what's actually being proposed by the Teals, who's in, who's out, and what it could all mean for the future of Australian democracy. But first, we're going to hear a quick message from Adela in the TDA team.
My name is Adela and I'm one of DailyOz's newest team members, the first news editor. One of my goals for TDA is to make sure we're doing more original reporting that you won't get elsewhere. But to make the investment in journalism, we need our audience to invest in us, not with money, but with engagement. To support the work we do, leave us a five-star review on Apple or comment on our episodes on Spotify. Any way you can engage with our episodes is helpful. And of course, thank you for being part of the Daily Oz community.
Em, I think to set the scene for why the Teal independence could be considering forming a party, we have to revisit the rise of One Nation. Yeah. Now I know on this podcast we have talked about it a lot. Yes. But I feel like even now the story has changed from when we last covered it, which was at the Farah by-election. Yeah, absolutely.
What recent changes are impacting Australian politics?
It was the first time they'd ever won a seat in the House of Representatives.
Yeah, because, of course, we have Barnaby Joyce, but he defected. So, yeah, that Farah by-election won One Nation their first elected MP in the lower house.
And over the past week I've had conversations with people in politics who have said no one quite understands how popular One Nation is. And then over the weekend this new polling came out, which shocked me in the sense of how sudden this it looks like this rise of One Nation is. Because if we go to the very last election, which was last year, One Nation didn't win a single seat. And now this new polling that came out over the weekend suggested that they would win many, many seats if there was an election held tomorrow. Take us through the research that came out.
So this is polling data from Redbridge Group and Accent Research and basically they conducted this survey of over 6,000 Australian voters between the 29th of April and the 14th of May and the forecast is that One Nation, Pauline Hanson's party known for its kind of further right politics, conservative politics, anti-immigration stance, that it could win between 46 to 59 lower house seats if a federal election were held today. The median of that prediction is 53 seats. Now, as we've discussed, that would be a massive jump up from the two that it currently holds in the House of Reps. And alongside that polling data, the coalition, the Liberal National Coalition, would be projected to be reduced to 7 to 21 seats.
The median Redbridge data puts the Liberals with winning 12 seats and the Nats at zero. So this prediction is that the Nationals would be wiped out altogether, which the Accent Research political scientist Sean Ratcliffe called an intense fragmentation that would wipe out the two-party system as we know it.
And that is what is so interesting. I mean, growing up, I was always told Australia is a two party system. That's what we learned at school, at uni. And it's been the status quo for generations. And I remember always thinking, but like, but what if there was a party that like it's theoretically possible for a party to win enough seats to become a major party?
Absolutely. And we see that play out in other parts of the world, in European countries in particular, you've got a lot of minor parties that form parliaments.
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