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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Today's episode was made possible by our friends over at YWCA Australia.
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Good morning and welcome to The Daily Oz. It's Tuesday the 26th of May. I'm Emma Gillespie. I'm Billie Fitzsimons. Australian politics is in a period of serious flux right now, with a new poll reaffirming One Nation's growing popularity and showing the party could become the federal opposition if an election were held today.
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Chapter 2: What recent changes are impacting Australian politics?
It was the first time they'd ever won a seat in the House of Representatives.
Yeah, because, of course, we have Barnaby Joyce, but he defected. So, yeah, that Farah by-election won One Nation their first elected MP in the lower house.
And over the past week I've had conversations with people in politics who have said no one quite understands how popular One Nation is. And then over the weekend this new polling came out, which shocked me in the sense of how sudden this it looks like this rise of One Nation is. Because if we go to the very last election, which was last year, One Nation didn't win a single seat.
And now this new polling that came out over the weekend suggested that they would win many, many seats if there was an election held tomorrow. Take us through the research that came out.
So this is polling data from Redbridge Group and Accent Research and basically they conducted this survey of over 6,000 Australian voters between the 29th of April and the 14th of May and the forecast is that One Nation, Pauline Hanson's party known for its kind of
further right politics, conservative politics, anti-immigration stance, that it could win between 46 to 59 lower house seats if a federal election were held today. The median of that prediction is 53 seats. Now, as we've discussed, that would be a massive jump up from the two that it currently holds in the House of Reps.
And alongside that polling data, the coalition, the Liberal National Coalition, would be projected to be reduced to 7 to 21 seats. The median Redbridge data puts the Liberals with winning 12 seats and the Nats at zero.
So this prediction is that the Nationals would be wiped out altogether, which the Accent Research political scientist Sean Ratcliffe called an intense fragmentation that would wipe out the two-party system as we know it.
And that is what is so interesting. I mean, growing up, I was always told Australia is a two party system. That's what we learned at school, at uni. And it's been the status quo for generations. And I remember always thinking, but like, but what if there was a party that like it's theoretically possible for a party to win enough seats to become a major party?
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Chapter 3: How has One Nation's popularity surged recently?
climate action and environmental action through line for many of the teals so that that green and that blue comes together to form that teal colour. So that's why they're called the teals. But the six prominent ones in parliament, we have Allegra Spender, Zali Stegall, Nicolette Buller, Kate Cheney, Sophie Scomps and Monique Ryan.
they were all backed by a group called Climate 200 when they were elected. Now, that is a community-funded political action group. Basically, it gives funding and support to independent candidates, which includes not just money, but also research, administrative support, campaign expertise. So those women are in particular all united by similar causes. And
And the Liberal Party has actually argued that that already makes them a quasi-party in its own right.
Well, this is what I was going to say, is that I feel like since the rise of the Teal independence, they have been called this kind of, yeah, like you said, quasi-party. And they've always pushed against that by saying, no, we are independents in our own right. So Each of those individuals, Zali Stegall, Allegra Spender, are saying we are not a party.
We do not consult each other necessarily on what we think of policies. We come to our own decision by ourselves and we are not a party. And they've always been very strong in saying that. And so now suddenly there's this conversation that they could form a party.
Well, that conversation is being led by two Teals specifically. So Zali Stegall has confirmed she and Allegra Spender are leading talks and that they say are all about how to be more effective in Parliament.
So their defence or their argument is this is not about walking back on our values or going against the policies and ideas and community-backed initiatives that got us into Parliament in the first place.
but it's about coming together to respond to this huge frustration or what's Ali Stegall called this unhappiness with the major parties and that the rise of One Nation is really concerning for many in our community is what she told the ABC this week. So it's not necessarily about stepping away entirely from... the independent platforms that got these women elected in the first place.
But I think what's interesting is we have Senator David Pocock. He is a senator for the ACT. He's not considered in the same light as this group of Teals, but he is an independent and he has previously received funding from Climate 200.
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Chapter 4: What polling data reveals about One Nation's potential seats?
We've also heard from Helen Haynes, a regional Victorian MP who confirmed she won't be joining this party, although she did tell her colleagues to go your hardest if they want to explore it. Kate Cheney, from Curtin in WA said she would remain as an independent and regional SA MP Rebecca Sharkey also said that it's, quote, not for me.
But Sophie Skomps, McKellar's MP, she's left the door open for what she called a stronger alliance with the Teals. Skomps said she's going to consult with her community before making any major decisions, but sounding a little bit more inclined to join the movement than some of those other MPs. Basically, if at least five Teals join this movement, The party would reach minor party status.
Now that's important because it would unlock parliamentary entitlements like more funding.
And I always find it interesting that once you are elected, you can change whether you're an independent, whether you're part of a party because your electorate elects individuals as opposed to the party or the independents.
Does that make sense? Which is sometimes a criticism of the system that, you know, you can elect a person because they're in a party and then they can defect to a party that maybe you wouldn't have voted for.
Or you can elect someone because they're an independent and then suddenly they're part of the party. Well, exactly.
It goes both ways for sure.
All right. So where does that leave us? I mean, we're a fair way out from the next election. What happens next?
What happens next is we're waiting to see how much movement this garners. There's advanced conversations clearly happening. Sources say an announcement could come within weeks. What the party will be called and who will lead it remains to be seen. The coalition, it won't surprise you to hear, has dismissed this.
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