Emma Gillespie

Obviously, if it wipes out the Nationals and it picks up those extra liberal seats, there would be a much more formidable presence of One Nation in the lower house.

But Redbridge says that it would also need to win seats off Labor, which currently it's polled to do.

So under this modelling, Labor would be estimated to win 70 to 82 seats, median of 76.

That's down from the 94 that it won in that landslide victory last year.

But I thought this was some really interesting analysis from the pollsters and really speaks to what we're going to get into with the independents.

Redbridge analyst Alex Fien specifically warned against what she called reflexive interpretation.

That is that this surge of support for One Nation...

means society is lurching toward the far right.

Rather, she says, and what other commentators are saying that they're actually seeing, is that living standards have deteriorated, public services have deteriorated.

And as a result, trust in institutions like government has really collapsed for many voters.

Now, a vote for Pauline Hanson's One Nation isn't necessarily being read as

support for the party itself, but rather that we have this sentiment against major parties that, I mean, what Fien called literally a kick up the bum for the major parties, is this anti-establishment sentiment, not necessarily a full endorsement of One Nation.

And that I think opens up this idea of, well, is there room for a different minor party to emerge that could similarly threaten the coalition and Labor?

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Yes.

So the Teals are this group of mostly inner city based independent MPs.

They were largely elected at the 2022 federal election when they won a number of traditionally liberal seats.

So that was the Teal wave as it was described at the time.

And its key figures are the likes of Allegra Spender, who's in Wentworth in Sydney.