Eric Levitz

No, and there's two levels on which it's not going to work. First, Trump's tariffs are unlikely to even increase at the margin manufacturing in the United States, at least in the near term. The immediate response to Trump's tariffs among businesses and investors has been panic and a slowing down of investment.

No, and there's two levels on which it's not going to work. First, Trump's tariffs are unlikely to even increase at the margin manufacturing in the United States, at least in the near term. The immediate response to Trump's tariffs among businesses and investors has been panic and a slowing down of investment.

No, and there's two levels on which it's not going to work. First, Trump's tariffs are unlikely to even increase at the margin manufacturing in the United States, at least in the near term. The immediate response to Trump's tariffs among businesses and investors has been panic and a slowing down of investment.

It's generated massive uncertainty. You don't know what the tariffs are going to be a few weeks from now, let alone a few years. This is not a situation in which you are going to put in the money and time to put up a new factory in the United States that only makes economic sense if the tariffs stay in place for another five years. So one, it's just not working on its own terms.

It's generated massive uncertainty. You don't know what the tariffs are going to be a few weeks from now, let alone a few years. This is not a situation in which you are going to put in the money and time to put up a new factory in the United States that only makes economic sense if the tariffs stay in place for another five years. So one, it's just not working on its own terms.

It's generated massive uncertainty. You don't know what the tariffs are going to be a few weeks from now, let alone a few years. This is not a situation in which you are going to put in the money and time to put up a new factory in the United States that only makes economic sense if the tariffs stay in place for another five years. So one, it's just not working on its own terms.

But two, even if Trump had the most perfectly designed tariffs, was the most trustworthy steward of the American economy so everyone knew that he was going to stick by whatever he said, you would not be able to return the United States to an economy in which 30% of the workforce is working in manufacturing instead of closer to 10% as it is today.

But two, even if Trump had the most perfectly designed tariffs, was the most trustworthy steward of the American economy so everyone knew that he was going to stick by whatever he said, you would not be able to return the United States to an economy in which 30% of the workforce is working in manufacturing instead of closer to 10% as it is today.

But two, even if Trump had the most perfectly designed tariffs, was the most trustworthy steward of the American economy so everyone knew that he was going to stick by whatever he said, you would not be able to return the United States to an economy in which 30% of the workforce is working in manufacturing instead of closer to 10% as it is today.

The reason for that is that as countries get richer, people spend... a larger share of their money on services and a smaller share of their money on manufactured goods. The human appetite for appliances and cars is more limited than the human appetite for better health and higher investment returns. You know, you only need so many dishwashers. And so, fundamentally, we need an economic model

The reason for that is that as countries get richer, people spend... a larger share of their money on services and a smaller share of their money on manufactured goods. The human appetite for appliances and cars is more limited than the human appetite for better health and higher investment returns. You know, you only need so many dishwashers. And so, fundamentally, we need an economic model

The reason for that is that as countries get richer, people spend... a larger share of their money on services and a smaller share of their money on manufactured goods. The human appetite for appliances and cars is more limited than the human appetite for better health and higher investment returns. You know, you only need so many dishwashers. And so, fundamentally, we need an economic model

that is able to get us some of the good parts of the mid-century economy, the economic mobility, the wage growth for people who are not, you know, at the top of the class hierarchy. But we need to find a way to do that in a world where we have a services-dominated economy. And nostalgia is just not a good guide for getting us to that place.

that is able to get us some of the good parts of the mid-century economy, the economic mobility, the wage growth for people who are not, you know, at the top of the class hierarchy. But we need to find a way to do that in a world where we have a services-dominated economy. And nostalgia is just not a good guide for getting us to that place.

that is able to get us some of the good parts of the mid-century economy, the economic mobility, the wage growth for people who are not, you know, at the top of the class hierarchy. But we need to find a way to do that in a world where we have a services-dominated economy. And nostalgia is just not a good guide for getting us to that place.

The reason why we're still looking back is that it takes a while after an election to get all of the most high quality data on what exactly happened. So the full picture is starting to just come into view now.

The reason why we're still looking back is that it takes a while after an election to get all of the most high quality data on what exactly happened. So the full picture is starting to just come into view now.

The reason why we're still looking back is that it takes a while after an election to get all of the most high quality data on what exactly happened. So the full picture is starting to just come into view now.

Yeah, so this was my interview with David Shore of Blue Rose Research. He's one of the biggest sort of democratic data gurus in the party. And basically, the big picture headline takeaways are... Coming up on Today Explained.

Yeah, so this was my interview with David Shore of Blue Rose Research. He's one of the biggest sort of democratic data gurus in the party. And basically, the big picture headline takeaways are... Coming up on Today Explained.