Erica Chenoweth

That has drawn in

a lot of younger people and people from different walks of life into the movement.

And so I actually think this last No Kings saw the convergence of, you know, it was probably more demographically diverse than the prior, in part because of how many streams of opposition and resistance are kind of verging in those big days of action.

Clearly, like, the more people from the more walks of life who take part, the more powerful the movement will be.

And it's often the case that movements, you know, different formations appeal to different demographics.

And the more those formations come together, the more powerful they will be in shoring up the capacities of those different segments of society.

You could be on to something in some cases.

I would just note that there's some interesting research out there that shows that, for example, the Women's March of 2017 was the participation in women's marches just in that single day had a really powerful predictive effect on the diversity of candidates that ran in the midterm elections in 2018.

And the participation

the blue wave that came in 2018 flipping Congress to be a Democratic Congress, they can show a strong correlation between the numbers of people who participated on that day and the outcome of that election.

And the same is true for the 2020 election, actually, that large participation in Black Lives Matter protests in the summer of 2020 were also correlated with outcomes in the presidential election results.

and in shifts in public opinion, and in changes that were substantive around, for example, progressive attorneys general or DAs being, you know, elevated in local and state elections.

So, you know, I think that there are reasons to be skeptical, but also those types of stories aren't necessarily very prominent out there in the world.

And I think it can be

you know, really important to elevate the ways that even a single day of protest can have those types of electoral impacts.

Same for the Tea Party.

The Tea Party protests, there was a paper by economists that showed that it was powerfully correlated with the 2010 midterm election result, right?

So people shouldn't underestimate how important it is, and they shouldn't overestimate how important it is compared to the other things that also lead mass movements to succeed.

Yeah, I mean, if the pattern obtains in this case, then we would expect a loss in the midterms.

Now, I also think that...