Fabrizio Cariani

speaker

176 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2010 last heard Jul 2010

Fabrizio Cariani’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Elucidations · Episode 13: Fabrizio Cariani discusses judgment aggregation · 9 Jul 2010 podcast

Especially in the kind of delicate case in which the experts disagree with each other.

If they all agree, we all I think there is no problem with judgment aggregation, right?

Because we're just gonna believe what they s tell us to believe.

But when they disagree, a question arises as to how we should aggregate their opinions together into something that we can incorporate in our picture of the world.

So it depends on the circumstances as it turns out.

In absolute generality, there is something wrong.

And what is wrong is that when you're aggregating opinions on a set of logically connected propositions, majorities are not guaranteed to be consistent.

We can actually give a fairly simple example.

Let's give it first in the abstract, then maybe we'll try to give it in concrete.

But in the abstract it's something like this.

Suppose that you have two propositions

P and Q and you also wanna consider their conjunction.

It could be that there is a majority for P, a majority for Q, but it could be that the two majorities do not overlap.

So as it turns out, there is a minority in favor of the conjunction.

And when that happens, we're gonna have a majority for P, a majority for Q, and a majority for the negation of P and Q, which means the majority is actually recommending inconsistent beliefs in the

Way in which we're interpreting things.

And I think it's fair to say we don't want in such a simple case to have a rule that tells us that the group opinion is inconsistent.

So we're going to find some other way of dealing with these kinds of cases.

Now there's a question of how common these cases are, and they're not super common.

But I think there's two things you can say to that question.

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