Frank Newport
speaker
10 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2012
last heard Nov 2012
Frank Newport’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
That's a discrepancy.
What these aggregators were doing, who don't do polling of their own, by the way, they were saying, looking at the electoral college in the U.S., they thought that the number of polls in the swing states showing that Obama was probably going to win was high enough to give him a higher probability of winning.
What we were doing was simply saying, here's where we think the national popular vote will be, which will be quite close.
And in fact, the national popular vote was, in fact, quite close within a couple of points.
I think that there is some tension there, and part of it is founded on the fact that they don't poll.
It's kind of like the law of the commons.
If everybody rationally decides to graze their cow on the town commons, that makes sense.
But if everybody does it, there's no grass left and nobody can graze their cow.
Part of our issue is that if we don't do the polling, these aggregators have nothing to put into their model.
They just sit back and take the benefit of our hard work and toil.
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