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Freeberg

👤 Person
542 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

And currently, Japan is paying for it in terms of inflation.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

And currently, Japan is paying for it in terms of inflation.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

The government raised rates to tackle inflation. I'll pull up the inflation chart. Japan's inflation hit a 40-year high, and this just shot up in the last 18 months. Inflation is running at close to 4% a year.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

The government raised rates to tackle inflation. I'll pull up the inflation chart. Japan's inflation hit a 40-year high, and this just shot up in the last 18 months. Inflation is running at close to 4% a year.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

Well, their central bank has to buy most of the debt and their central bank sets the rates. So they have a large amount, 53% of their public debt is held by their central bank.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

Well, their central bank has to buy most of the debt and their central bank sets the rates. So they have a large amount, 53% of their public debt is held by their central bank.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

Well, yeah, while rates are low, you see this, you know, particularly in a market like we're facing today where there's global inflation, they need to raise rates in order to reduce inflation. The problem with raising rates is this, you know, this currency problem.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

Well, yeah, while rates are low, you see this, you know, particularly in a market like we're facing today where there's global inflation, they need to raise rates in order to reduce inflation. The problem with raising rates is this, you know, this currency problem.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

It's just arithmetic. You're going to pay for it with either economic contraction, higher taxes, or inflation. Those are the three places it goes. Yeah. And they did test it. They've stress tested now. Yeah.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

It's just arithmetic. You're going to pay for it with either economic contraction, higher taxes, or inflation. Those are the three places it goes. Yeah. And they did test it. They've stress tested now. Yeah.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

Yeah, that's exactly right. And then their federal spending gets compressed because now they have to service that debt. Again, they're already spending 25% of their federal budget on servicing existing debt with the low interest rates. And they've got to support an aging population.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

Yeah, that's exactly right. And then their federal spending gets compressed because now they have to service that debt. Again, they're already spending 25% of their federal budget on servicing existing debt with the low interest rates. And they've got to support an aging population.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

We're about a trillion a year with a proposed 7.3 trillion budget. So we're at 13.6%. And Japan is at 25%. Over the next 10 years, isn't our debt service supposed to rise to... Yeah, as all of the low interest bonds mature, and we issue new debt at a higher interest rate, our debt service cost is going to continue to climb.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

We're about a trillion a year with a proposed 7.3 trillion budget. So we're at 13.6%. And Japan is at 25%. Over the next 10 years, isn't our debt service supposed to rise to... Yeah, as all of the low interest bonds mature, and we issue new debt at a higher interest rate, our debt service cost is going to continue to climb.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

It's already higher than discretionary military spending at over a trillion a year.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

It's already higher than discretionary military spending at over a trillion a year.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

I think it shows how much leverage there is in this. Totally. That's what it is. It's all about leverage.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

I think it shows how much leverage there is in this. Totally. That's what it is. It's all about leverage.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

Leverage on leverage on leverage.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz

Leverage on leverage on leverage.