Freeberg

With this particular trade, JP Morgan yesterday or a few hours ago said that they think about... 75% of the yen carry trades have now been unwound. And it was at 50% a little over a day ago. So the market has moved to kind of unwind these trades, it seems, and we're pretty much at the end of the levered fallout of this particular activity. So I put the link here.

With this particular trade, JP Morgan yesterday or a few hours ago said that they think about... 75% of the yen carry trades have now been unwound. And it was at 50% a little over a day ago. So the market has moved to kind of unwind these trades, it seems, and we're pretty much at the end of the levered fallout of this particular activity. So I put the link here.

Obviously, you have to account for inflation and government spending. How much of government spending is driving economic growth? Today, the U.S. is proposing to spend $7.3 trillion next year out of $25 trillion GDP. So the US federal government is roughly 30% of GDP, and we obviously still are tackling inflation.

Obviously, you have to account for inflation and government spending. How much of government spending is driving economic growth? Today, the U.S. is proposing to spend $7.3 trillion next year out of $25 trillion GDP. So the US federal government is roughly 30% of GDP, and we obviously still are tackling inflation.

The real question is how much of the economy is growing because of productivity gains in the sector of the economy where people are making things and doing things versus the government using its ability to tax and borrow

The real question is how much of the economy is growing because of productivity gains in the sector of the economy where people are making things and doing things versus the government using its ability to tax and borrow

drive growth in the economy by inflating numbers, by pushing revenue onto businesses, by pushing capital into the markets, by creating levered trades in the markets using their borrowing capacity and their taxing capacity. So that's the thing I remain concerned about. I mentioned this last week. I remain highly concerned about many sectors of the economy that are deeply challenged right now.

drive growth in the economy by inflating numbers, by pushing revenue onto businesses, by pushing capital into the markets, by creating levered trades in the markets using their borrowing capacity and their taxing capacity. So that's the thing I remain concerned about. I mentioned this last week. I remain highly concerned about many sectors of the economy that are deeply challenged right now.

particularly the industrial sectors, the manufacturing sectors, the agricultural sectors, but services and software sectors where you can raise prices and you have a nice high margin business, you can continue to grow and look good. But there are many parts of the global economy and the US economy that are pretty challenged right now.

particularly the industrial sectors, the manufacturing sectors, the agricultural sectors, but services and software sectors where you can raise prices and you have a nice high margin business, you can continue to grow and look good. But there are many parts of the global economy and the US economy that are pretty challenged right now.

That's a small percentage of the economy, J. Cal. That's a few tech companies. but much of the manufacturing sector, the industrial sector, the ag markets, like there's a lot of markets where you don't have this option to just cut knowledge workers. The knowledge worker economy, the software economy has the ability to do that.

That's a small percentage of the economy, J. Cal. That's a few tech companies. but much of the manufacturing sector, the industrial sector, the ag markets, like there's a lot of markets where you don't have this option to just cut knowledge workers. The knowledge worker economy, the software economy has the ability to do that.

The tech economy can do that, but much of the rest of the economy doesn't have a lot of maneuverability like we do in this fast growth. high margin kind of industry we work in.

The tech economy can do that, but much of the rest of the economy doesn't have a lot of maneuverability like we do in this fast growth. high margin kind of industry we work in.

shift in management and how they run these companies. That's about reduced forecast, right? So when their revenue decline, when their revenue forecasts have to be cut, they have to cut headcount. That's different than creating more efficiency.

shift in management and how they run these companies. That's about reduced forecast, right? So when their revenue decline, when their revenue forecasts have to be cut, they have to cut headcount. That's different than creating more efficiency.

But I mean, it's obviously- That's a loss of jobs and a loss of growth, right? So just to be clear, when you cut stores, you have less growth. When you cut jobs, that's because you don't have as much revenue growth. So those are about- But earnings can go up, right? They can be supported, but you're still facing contraction.

But I mean, it's obviously- That's a loss of jobs and a loss of growth, right? So just to be clear, when you cut stores, you have less growth. When you cut jobs, that's because you don't have as much revenue growth. So those are about- But earnings can go up, right? They can be supported, but you're still facing contraction.

And one of the challenges right now, a lot of food companies, a lot of retail companies have been raising prices to try and keep earnings going up, but there's hitting this natural inflection point where consumers no longer buy, where you find this tipping point.

And one of the challenges right now, a lot of food companies, a lot of retail companies have been raising prices to try and keep earnings going up, but there's hitting this natural inflection point where consumers no longer buy, where you find this tipping point.