Galen Druke

speaker

215 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2026 last heard 2d ago

Galen Druke’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

Appearances

newest first · ▶ plays the moment

What A Day · Should You Trust Midterm Polling? · 24 Sep 2026 podcast

And so, you know, that's one thing.

The other thing is that

Data can do weird things.

I mean, for example, if you look at the Alaska governor's race, there's three Republicans running, one Democrat running.

There's a lot of consternation about, you know, that two of the Republicans should have dropped out.

So it's just a Democrat versus a Republican.

There's rank choice voting.

It's you know, it's not really clear how it's hard to model that, I will say.

And there's not a lot of polling either.

So the polling based forecasts can get weird results.

The expert readers go in and they say, I know this candidate, I know their campaign, I've talked to them, I know their opponent, I've talked to their campaign too, I know the weird things about Alaska, I know the issues that are at play, I know that this is a stronger candidate or this is a weaker candidate.

And regional factors and candidate quality matter more in a midterm environment than a presidential environment.

And therefore, my intuition, again, these are mostly sort of like intuitions.

Is that this candidate is going to outperform or underperform what have you?

That's that's valuable, especially at a very sort of district or race specific level where the modelers just don't have as much information.

There aren't polls in all of these congressional districts.

And so I think that's probably where some of the disagreement comes from.

Well, I think the good news is, and I also believe this about the polls more broadly and forecast models more broadly, that not enough Americans are sickos like us for

All of these things to really shape people's understanding of the race all that much.

You know, most people a lot of people are like, when is the midterm?

Showing 161–180 of 215 · page 9 of 11