Gary Stevenson
speaker
5,834 appearances
16 recordings
3 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 26 Jul
Gary Stevenson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 16 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 6.
Appearances
So if inflation is uncertain, then the interest rate is uncertain.
And that means that traders all over the world, especially interest rate traders, are just constantly reading the news, watching their phones, talking to each other, basically to try to figure out when the Iran war is going to end.
And that level of extreme uncertainty, because as you now know,
Government bond investors are very, very concerned in inflation, central bank interest rates and government financial sustainability.
And all of these three things are really heavily affected by the question of how long will the Iran war last?
What that means is
The huge amount of uncertainty about all of those three factors has meant that government bonds have become incredibly volatile in financial markets.
And what that means is, you know, you will get in a given day where the interest rate will move
You know, the kind of size which previously you might have seen that move might take a month, that move will be happening in a day or two days.
And that has been happening quite consistently in the last few months ever since the Iran war started.
Government bond prices and government bond interest rates have been incredibly volatile because of all of this uncertainty about inflation and uncertainty about interest rates.
And that has obviously coincided in this country in the last few months with a period of intense speculation about whether and when Keir Starmer will resign.
He has resigned.
Congratulations, Keir Starmer.
And whether and when Andy Byrne will become prime minister.
So you've had these two things happening at the same time, which is we don't know when the Iran war will end, we don't know what inflation will be, and we don't know if Andy Byrne will be prime minister.
And that has meant that we have had on a few occasions, we'd have a day where something happens about Andy Burnham and it looks like he's going to be prime minister.
And on the same day, something happens on the Iran war and it looks like the Iran war is going to be longer than we thought.
And what you will get is a collapse in demand for government bonds because of the Iran war.
And some of the press has frequently, you know, I think even institutions that should be respected, such as the Financial Times,
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