Gavin Baker
speaker
1,686 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2026
last heard 4 Aug
Gavin Baker’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And then Nematron continues to kind of chug along.
We had a great, very small American open source model release.
OpenAI has accelerated.
And Anthropic continues to grow really strongly and is almost certainly pumping out significant amounts of free cash flow.
And I just think if, you know, there's this chart that everybody looks at of semiconductor cash flow going like this and hyperscale free cash flow going like that, and you're missing these private companies.
But I also think that that chart misses something very important, which is just that you have everyone in 24 and 25.
Even if you were really bullish, you thought that GPU prices, if you're really bullish, you thought they would decline slowly.
If you're bearish, you thought it would decline precipitously.
I don't think anyone in 24 or 25 thought that the prices of old GPUs would be going vertical.
Everybody thought, hey, we're going to be smart.
We're going to sign these long-term contracts.
And to some degree, like a lot of the Neo clouds had to do that because they needed an offtake agreement to finance the GPUs.
And so essentially you have the contracted base of installed compute, right?
trading at a massive discount to the current spot market.
And as those contracts roll off and compute gets repriced higher, its spot can decline and compute will still get repriced higher.
I think you're going to see a lot of acceleration that's going to answer these ROI questions.
You've started to see that this quarter.
If we look at operating cash flow, not free cash flow, operating cash flow from Microsoft, Meta and Amazon has reported accelerated from 28 to 32.
There are some actually pretty big unusual items now, like these hyperscalers.
They always seem to have billions of dollars of legal expenses that are unusual.
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