Gavin Baker

speaker

1,686 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard May 2026 last heard 4 Aug

Gavin Baker’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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They've shown over the last three years they can bring on more compute faster than anyone at lower prices.

And now we know that they can even adjusting for the spot first contract gap.

Their big advantage was they came into the market, hit those spot highs.

And in a strange way, like one of the more bullish things for compute is they put a vast amount of compute into the market overnight.

And it wasn't even really a blip.

It was like the market just utterly absorbed it.

The freight trade didn't slow down at all.

A Substack writer, well, Funda AI, they think that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months.

So eight gigawatts over the next 18 months.

I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat.

Rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.

And they're monetizing at something like 50 billion a gig.

And consensus estimates for next year are 73 billion.

So forget Starlink V3.

Forget Starlink Direct to Sell.

Grok 4.5 and Cursor, I think that the sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.

Forget all of that.

You know, forget the core base Starlink business.

If they bring on anywhere near that,

the consensus estimate is 73 billion, and that's eight gigs at 50 billion a gig.

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