Gavin Baker
speaker
1,686 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2026
last heard 4 Aug
Gavin Baker’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And like I really went deep on credit because, hey, this is real.
It's undeniable.
And if we need credit to fund this build out, this is a significant negative.
And if you model it out, if you look at the amount of gigawatts that are supposed to come on in consensus estimates for hyperscalers, they're effectively modeled.
These are gigawatts of Blackwell and Rubin.
Rubin being NVIDIA's next chip, Blackwell being the current chip.
They are essentially modeled to monetize roughly at the rate of Ampere, which is two generations behind.
Not at Hopper, but Ampere.
So there's 1.3 to 1.4 trillion in hyperscale operating cash flow.
If you just assume, I think it's very unlikely they monetize at the rate of Ampere.
We could go into why.
Some of it comes from just seeing what is happening on the ground with demand here for real quantitative metrics.
But like, let's just say they monetize at a discount to current Blackwells.
Then it's more like $2 trillion of operating cash flow.
And that kind of takes $700 billion of credit demand out, ironically, as that improves all the credit ratios.
As these installed bases of compute reprice, we're going to continue accelerating.
Consensus is modeling at a deceleration, which I think is unlikely.
Then the credit metrics look better.
And then all of a sudden, it gets easier to finance with credit.
Now, whether they choose to do that or not, we'll see.
Showing 121–140 of 1,686 · page 7 of 85
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