Gavin Baker

Gavin, how do you look at that market? Do you agree? I agree with everything Joe said. The only thing I would just add on China... What we are doing by restricting their access to advanced compute and advanced networking, if you have read or watched the three-body problem, America is unfolding a so-fond over China.

Gavin, how do you look at that market? Do you agree? I agree with everything Joe said. The only thing I would just add on China... What we are doing by restricting their access to advanced compute and advanced networking, if you have read or watched the three-body problem, America is unfolding a so-fond over China.

I have been really impressed with some of the Chinese models that have come out. And I think the risk to this strategy is necessity is the mother of invention. And despite this handicap, they're managing to stay just behind the leading edge of America, which is amazing. But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're going to have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom.

I have been really impressed with some of the Chinese models that have come out. And I think the risk to this strategy is necessity is the mother of invention. And despite this handicap, they're managing to stay just behind the leading edge of America, which is amazing. But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're going to have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom.

And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.

And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.

It is very aggressive foreign policy.

It is very aggressive foreign policy.

Clearly. You know, that could have lots of unforeseen consequences.

Clearly. You know, that could have lots of unforeseen consequences.

We have lots of rare earth here in America. We have everything in America. I think there's a project underway to restart rare earth production. If there were ever to be a conflict, all this stuff would go away.

We have lots of rare earth here in America. We have everything in America. I think there's a project underway to restart rare earth production. If there were ever to be a conflict, all this stuff would go away.

Yeah, and I would just say this is, I think, a very important moment for AI today. you know, for this entire AI trade in public and private markets, you know, everybody I'm sure who watches your podcast is very aware of scaling loss.

Yeah, and I would just say this is, I think, a very important moment for AI today. you know, for this entire AI trade in public and private markets, you know, everybody I'm sure who watches your podcast is very aware of scaling loss.

And we have not had a scaling loss for training, or if you 10X the amount of compute used to train a model, you significantly improved the intelligence and capability of that model. And often they're these kind of emergent properties that emerge alongside that higher IQ. No one thought it was possible to make more than 25,000, maybe 30,000, 32,000, pick a number, NVIDIA hoppers coherent.

And we have not had a scaling loss for training, or if you 10X the amount of compute used to train a model, you significantly improved the intelligence and capability of that model. And often they're these kind of emergent properties that emerge alongside that higher IQ. No one thought it was possible to make more than 25,000, maybe 30,000, 32,000, pick a number, NVIDIA hoppers coherent.

And what coherent means is in a training cluster that each GPU, to kind of simplify it, knows what every other GPU is thinking. So every GPU in that 30,000 cluster knows what the other 29,999 are thinking. And you need a lot of networking to make that happen.

And what coherent means is in a training cluster that each GPU, to kind of simplify it, knows what every other GPU is thinking. So every GPU in that 30,000 cluster knows what the other 29,999 are thinking. And you need a lot of networking to make that happen.

InfiniBand, and I think even more importantly, NVLink, although a lot of... ethernet is, um, you know, never bet against the internet, never, never bet against ethernet. Um, like if you read the Lama 3.1 technical paper, you know, got a lot of people excited about skinny link ethernet, but, um,

InfiniBand, and I think even more importantly, NVLink, although a lot of... ethernet is, um, you know, never bet against the internet, never, never bet against ethernet. Um, like if you read the Lama 3.1 technical paper, you know, got a lot of people excited about skinny link ethernet, but, um,