Gavin Friend

speaker
7,937 appearances 60 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 2 Sep

Gavin Friend’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months
5 · Oct OctJan 26AprJulnow

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 29 in all, peaking in Oct 2025 with 5.

Appearances

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Every now and again the market you know has another little panic about it because at the core of it is are is unsustainable fiscal trajectories for the US, the UK, France, um, you know, Japan, other c a a number of countries we can
Sure.
Fix that i in a in an announcement today or Monday.
And that's and that's my point.
It's that it's it's inflation.
If you want to think about inflation from Iran or from on the supply side or from AI, although we we would note that what's driving up yields is actually more real yields, not the break-evens.
Japan is flowing into the mix.
But the larger, the larger driver for this, the new news, if you like, in inverted commas, uh is competition for capital.
It's the AI hyperscalers.
You know, investment grade, very strong balance sheet companies that are issuing huge that they've shifted from you know running from from from their free cash models to their issuance.
And it's huge what's coming down the pipe here.
And it's that competition for capital.
As I think uh Alfred Muslim, uh one of the Fed governors, noted today, you know, that very point that this is distorting bond markets.
Can
Can we see that going away anytime soon?
I I don't think so.
It's probably going to get even worse for the Treasury.
So
You know, there's a there's a lot to be thinking here, uh and and actually good reason to try and cut your cloth and get your your your borrowing back in order.
Well, no, absolutely.
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