Gavin Friend
speaker
7,937 appearances
60 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 2 Sep
Gavin Friend’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 29 in all, peaking in Oct 2025 with 5.
Appearances
Yeah, I think um yeah, so so the the the worry about the um as encouraging as the the the rise in manufacturing activity is, there's a general agreement that this is just bringing forward orders uh ahead of an expected supply crunch coming out of the Gulf um rather than something genuine and thereby there'll be some payback, there'll be some some weaker numbers to come further down.
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And that's across the board, as you say, across most nations.
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The service sector is interesting because
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we to your point, we've seen real weakness in Europe.
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We've gone from 52 to 47.
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Um you you'd not really seen that uh in the US.
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In the US, the numbers have held above, well above 50 actually in the sort of the 52 area, 51, 52, 53.
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So um, you know, that again, that underlines the sort of resilience, the surprising resilience, I think, yeah, that we've seen in the US, you know, I know we to your point earlier about the
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not suffering the same in terms of the uh the the the the the sort of shortages of of of energy products but they are being affected by the price um and but but we're not seeing that we're seeing consumption hold up we're seeing retail sales numbers are pretty good um you know and uh you know it's it's kind of interesting that that's that we're not we're not seeing this the magnitude of the weakness that we're seeing in Europe so
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Yes, very much looking to see whether there's any kind of adjustment there.
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Yeah.
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Good morning, Phil.
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Basically, you're right.
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Mostly in this stride, this is the kind of thing that takes a little bit of time to absorb.
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I think it was a budget set against challenging circumstances, rising inflation, energy price shocks, 75 basis points of rate hikes, but also inflation.
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where the economy's been exhibiting healthy, tight labour market and strong growth.
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So that's led to some revenue upgrades, thanks to things like high commodity prices and stronger taxation revenue.
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The fiscal budget deficit for 26-27 is 31.5 billion.
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That's about a percent of GDP, a bit smaller than estimates.
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Not all of the revenue upgrade estimates
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Showing 1241–1260 of 7,937 · page 63 of 397
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