Gavin Friend

speaker

7,937 appearances 60 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 2 Sep

Gavin Friend’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 29 in all, peaking in Oct 2025 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · The Waiting Game · 7 May 2026 podcast

Q four. matched

Indeed, indeed indeed. matched

Um, the annual productivity gained get productivity gains are up to two point nine percent from two point five. matched

So, you know, y it's productivity, it's a slower pace. matched

You y you could argue that while the labour market has stabilized, as I said, the US is experiencing less labour supply via, you know, things like immigration crackdown and or maybe on sort of demographic matched

I mean, there's this idea that more people are retiring because of their 401ks are doing so well because of the buoyant stock markets. matched

So, you know, and the suspicion is that AI is is is helping out though, you know, if you think about what the Fed, you know, Fed officials have recently said about that. matched

I mean, they can see productivity is rising, but they can't really say why why it's rising. matched

Or, you know, their suspicion is AI, but they don't really know and they don't know how matched

how long it's gonna last. matched

But to the extent it does, you know, wages seem relatively benign. matched

And that keeps the idea at least of lower inflation, you know, some way down the track once we get through whatever's going on with tariffs, whatever's going on with uh higher energy prices, you know, and that kind of plays to the sort of comments that we heard from matched

uh Susan Collins um you know Thursday uh and Mary Daly. matched

I mean Susan Collins matched

really sort of saying that she agreed. matched

She's not she's a non-voter, uh, which is why she didn't cast that vote. matched

But she kind of agrees with the three dissenters who want, you know, to kind of uh push back on the idea that the the statement says that the bias is that, you know, the next move is likely to be down. matched

They want a more symmetrical, balanced approach. matched

And remember Jay Powell has talked about matched

That may well come to pass at the next Fed meeting, which will be uh matched

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