Geoffrey Hinton

OpenAI might win.

I think it's less likely that Microsoft will win or that Facebook will win.

Okay.

My belief is, just from reading it in the media, that 80% of the increase of the value in the stock market, the US stock market, can be attributed to the increase in value of the big AI companies.

True.

Anyone thinking bubble?

The issue is this.

There's two senses of bubble.

One sense of bubble is it turns out AI doesn't really work as well as people thought it might.

It doesn't actually develop the ability to replace all human intellectual labor, which is what most people developing it believe is going to happen in the end.

The other sense of bubble is the companies can't get their money back from the investments.

Now, that seems to be a more likely kind of bubble.

Because as far as I understand it, the companies are all assuming if we can get there first, we can sell people AI that will replace a lot of jobs.

And of course, people will pay a lot of money for that.

So we'll get lots of money.

but they haven't thought about the social consequences.

If they really do replace lots of jobs, the social consequences will be terrible.

Correct.

That's the Keynesian view of it.

And then the additional view is that there'll be high unemployment levels, which will lead to a lot of social unrest.