George Hahn

First off, the Trump administration is just so incredibly incompetent as to not recognize in war, the enemy gets a say.

Another blind spot, A, the rest of the world, specifically emerging economies where governments are already rationing fuel.

The question isn't where oil prices peak, but how long they remain elevated.

As one analyst told Bloomberg, the biggest risk in the market is the Strait of Hormuz remaining constrained for a longer stretch and the market feeling the U.S.

and its allies have a limited capacity to alter the dynamic.

Some signs that risk may be underappreciated?

Last week, the U.S.

and other international energy agency members released 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves, the largest distribution in history.

This week, Trump asked NATO, Japan, South Korea, and even China to send their navies to help open the strait.

They declined.

Turns out showing a total lack of respect for your allies weakens an alliance.

Meanwhile, Trump added shavings of shit to his shit salad by suspending sanctions on Russian oil, undermining Ukraine's war effort.

Finally, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told CNBC the U.S.

is letting Iran continue to ship its oil via the Strait to supply the rest of the world.

If it sounds like Trump is flailing, trust your instincts.

Above 26,000 feet, the human body cannot acclimatize.

It can only deteriorate.

The world's most fragile economies have been living in the financial equivalent of the death zone for years.

Unstable debt, thin reserves, and no margin for error.

When oil prices spike, energy-dependent emerging economies get hit from three directions at once.