George Hahn

the cost of importing energy rises, their currencies weaken against the dollar, oil is priced in dollars and everyone needs more of them, and the investors who lent the money start doing the math.

That last part is the killer, as dollar-denominated debt is a hidden oil bet.

When a country borrows in dollars, it's implicitly betting that its local currency won't weaken.

Oil price spikes strengthen the dollar and crush local currencies simultaneously, making the country's debt more expensive to service at exactly the moment it's least able to pay it.

That's not one problem.

It's the same problem expressed twice.

Since the war began, oil has spiked and the dollar has hit a 10-month high.

Essentially, Trump ordered the surf and turf, and when the bill arrived, asked the server to split it 193 ways.

It's often said that when America sneezes, the world catches a cold.

For Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, this war is the equivalent of RFK Jr.

dictating health policy to an unvaccinated population.

A week into the war, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said his country is in a state of near emergency.

Domestic fuel prices have spiked 17%, the Egyptian pound has declined 11% against the dollar, and traders have sold an estimated $5 billion to $8 billion in Egyptian bonds.

A Goldman Sachs analyst told Bloomberg that Egypt is "...exposed but more resilient than in previous crises," citing the country's $52 billion in currency reserves.

But according to Khalid Azim at the Atlantic Council, Egypt holds enough economic and geopolitical importance that if financing conditions tighten or external shocks intensify, stress in Egypt could serve as an early signal that broader financial instability is beginning to emerge across the region.

Pakistan may be the most symptomatic patient on the ward.

Just six days after the war's start, the Pakistani government raised fuel prices 20% to stop hoarding.

Meanwhile, the country carries external debt equal to 315% of its export revenue.

meaning for every dollar of value created abroad, it's already promised three to a foreign creditor.

That's not an economy.