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Gordon Carrera

👤 Speaker
640 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

rock music to try and get him out, but eventually it works.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

That's a kind of wild way of doing a capture operation.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

Yeah.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

Which I think goes back to the point we made right at the start of this two-part series, which is the operation itself

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

was flawlessly executed and incredibly effective at doing what it wanted to do.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

But where it leads to and what happens next is much less clear.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

And I think that's where the tricky bit comes because it's one thing to carry out that operation, but until you know what's going to replace Maduro, until you understand the consequence of it, it's a lot hard to say that the overall outcome

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

policy is a success.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

And I think that's perhaps where we should end up, is where does this new doctrine and new policy take us?

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

Yeah, I think that's right.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

I mean, to some extent, the Russians are already trying to do that, and they tried to do it in Ukraine.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

So it's not like they could be more emboldened, but they might see it as an opening.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

But I agree, if China feels like that is the new way of the world, if this is the nature of power and the exercise of power, and that the US is less likely to intervene over Taiwan, then yeah, you can certainly see that as plausible.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

So I think in the short term, definitely a loss for China and Russia in terms of

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

the battle for influence.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

They've lost an ally.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

If you're Russia, you've lost Syria as an ally.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

You've now lost Venezuela.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

If you're China, who are trying pretty actively to build influence in Latin America, this also potentially is a loss.

The Rest Is Classified
115. Intelligence Scoop: Why Venezuela Isn’t About Oil (Ep 2)

But as I said, I think it's still too early to know how it's going to play out, isn't it?