Gordon Carrera

It's lost its legitimacy.

We talked earlier about China.

One of the things China was able to do was, yes, it did this brutal repression.

But then in the years afterwards, it was able to strike a new socioeconomic contract with its people and go, we will give you economic growth.

You might not get political freedom, but that's the trade-off, economic growth for a lack of political freedom.

And it kind of worked for the Communist Party in solidifying their control in China.

Now, you cannot see that happening in Iran.

You can't see it being able to kind of re-legitimize itself or create a new social economic contract.

Because it's got sanctions, it's got all these other pressures on the economy.

So I think for that reason, this idea it's in its death throes does feel right, but that doesn't really tell you how long it's going to last or how it's going to play out.

Which are going to be proved wrong by the time this episode comes out.

Amongst the security forces, yeah.

Yeah.

And I think ending on a note of humility is the right one about the ability to forecast these things because a lot of people have tried, and as we've talked about with previous revolutions and uprisings, have tried to predict those.

And it is, I think, for reasons we've really explored, hard.

And there are reasons why it's hard.

And there are reasons why it's hard to see cracks in a regime or in the elite or how the security forces are going to act.

And it can come down to very interesting individual decisions.

So there, David, I think let's leave this exploration of Iran and predicting revolutions.

Just a reminder, if you're a member of the Declassified Club, you're going to be able to hear an interview with Arash Azizi talking about some of these issues.