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Gordon Carrera

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
1645 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

It's very interesting in this way.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

I mean, at the moment, there's some signs that internet connectivity are being restored a little bit, but pretty much it's still...

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

shut down.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

I think we should come back to this later when we look at where things might go next, because I think this ability to shut down communications has two motives really from the Iranian authorities.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

One is it makes it harder for the protesters to organise themselves if you can shut down or control

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And the second one is it stops the outside world knowing what's going on and seeing potentially how bad it is and therefore, you know, mobilizing to do something about it.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

So I think that has been an important factor in this is the shutdown of Iranian communications and the ability of the regime to at least control some aspects of information getting out.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

We do know, even with that, that the crackdown has been, I think, bloodier than those we've seen in the past, because it's not the first set of protests that Iran has seen, but this is certainly the most dramatic, I think.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

So that's the situation as far as we do know at this point.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

Let's talk a bit now about what might be going on within the CIA, within the analytical arm, the mini McCloskeys, we call them.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

Who will be working on it and what will they be doing?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

then you're going to have um you've got the other agencies in the us you've got kind of signals intercept communications intercept nsa you're going to have foreign partners aren't you who are going to be feeding stuff in neighboring countries i guess middle east partners the brits you know unlike the americans do have an embassy in tehran but it's been evacuated it's been moved out in the last couple of weeks when things looked bad but the brits do have some understanding of what's going on on the ground but when i spoke to someone about it in the last few days they were saying a lot of what people will be doing will be because of the shutdown

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

of internet connectivity is talking to people who are coming out over the borders, you know, at some of those border crossing points.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

And those border crossing points will be the kind of hubs where people are saying, what's going on?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

You know, what are you hearing?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

What's happening?

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

Because that might be one of the only ways of actually kind of getting the information in and out with that shutdown.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

But I guess it's about pulling all that together if you're inside the CIA's analytic division to try and kind of come to a truest possible understanding of what's actually going on on the ground.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

The NSC, that's the National Security Council where policymakers meet.

The Rest Is Classified
118. Inside Iran: Can You Predict A Revolution? (Ep 1)

So I think there with those questions in mind, let's take a break.