Gordon Carrera

You've got the son of the former Shah, Reza Pahlavi, as being a kind of figurehead, but I'm slightly unconvinced that he really has the width and the depth of support, other than as maybe a transitional figure, to really...

coalesce people around a single point which could challenge the regime.

So I think it's interesting, but surprising.

And that's the one where I think

Iran is in real trouble.

If I was an analyst, if I was a mini-Mikoski now, I'd be like, this is the one where Iran might have got through this very acute crisis in the last few days.

But the underlying problem, the socio-economic contract, that contract is broken and it's very hard to see it fixable for this Iranian regime.

That is the kind of, I think, one of the weakest pillars for it, isn't it?

They were looking at providing some subsidies and they were so kind of flimsy and pathetic that I think that was one of the things which set off the problem.

So I think we can agree that pillar is fundamentally weak.

Next pillar, getting onto I think our fifth, the legitimacy narrative.

I think this one is a really interesting one because the government has portrayed itself as this great kind of revolutionary power underlined by, of course, religion and the sheer religion.

They've tried to claim that the people who are protesting are terrorists backed by foreign powers.

You can see them trying to engage that legitimacy narrative there to try and say, we are the rightful protectors of this country and, you know, against foreign powers trying to undermine it.

I'm utterly unconvinced anyone buys that these days.

And I think their legitimacy, their sense that their ability to govern the country also was undermined by that 12 day war with the US and Israel last summer, where basically the

You know, they were able to take out some of the senior figures and military figures, which showed that the government was weak, didn't strike back.

So you just feel the kind of legitimacy for this regime is evaporating.

I think that is a weak pillar in my mind.

Iran does get support from China and Russia.