Gordon Carrera

Because I think it is true that on the whole they didn't.

Do you think so?

Yeah, I think so.

I think, look, you're going to pull out some other examples.

You can easily find other examples of analysts going, something could happen.

You can always find those.

And I think that's fine.

It is more complicated than a simple failure.

And there are people who said there were problems and there were weaknesses.

All of that's true.

But I still think it's a failure.

I think that's a really interesting actual example of where a missing piece of intelligence really makes a difference.

If a leader is sick and on his last legs, regime stability may be in danger or he may act erratically.

And I think you're right.

That is actually a crucial kind of piece of the puzzle, which wasn't available there.

You can argue it's an intelligence failure not to know that.

But yeah, it does kind of affect the analysis.

I think there's also some evidence, isn't there, that the

there was quite an investment in the regime, in the relationship between the CIA and SAVAK, the intelligence services of Iran, in seeing stability between that.

Which maybe meant that one of the criticisms you do hear about intelligence agencies, sometimes they're talking