Graham Allison

speaker

548 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 9 Mar

Graham Allison’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 1.

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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Graham Allison on the Global Realignment: Iran, China, Israel, Greenland · 9 Mar 2026 podcast

So Taiwan, number one, I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan

this year or next year, or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low.

I put it at about where the

where the prediction markets are, 5% or something low.

So I'm not counting on that.

I'm just curious.

Why 5%?

Yeah.

Because, first, they have a theory of the case of what they call peaceful reunification, and they think things are evolving in that direction.

The theory of the case is that the current government, which is a

DPP government, which currently is stymied by its opposition in the parliament.

So they can't even buy the arms sales that we previously gave them.

There's $11 billion arms sales that the Chinese have complained about.

But Taiwan, the legislature, probably won't buy half of that, okay?

So the current president is struggling.

There's going to be an election in January 28th, and they think it's likely that the former party, the KMT, will be elected.

Somebody that will be much more sympathetic to China and to an evolving relationship.

So that's number one.

The Chinese have been engaged in a deep, deep purge of all of their military leadership.

I mean, it's hard to believe.

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