Greg Ip
speaker
528 appearances
8 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2018
last heard Sep 2024
Greg Ip’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
None of that's true right now.
We've had significant strengthening in the quality of underwriting and the quality of regulation.
Very few people are at the risk of foreclosure, even in a negative price environment the way we were 10 or 15 years ago.
So you can't really get that dynamic going.
So it's pretty unlikely that we're going to get the kind of negative price behavior that we saw back then.
I would also add, JR, that if you look at other countries, and by the way, this is true in the stock market as well, just because an asset is overvalued doesn't mean it can't get more overvalued.
And in fact, we have seen in places like Canada or Australia, houses that were overvalued 10 years ago proceeded to become even more overvalued over the next 5 to 10 years.
So the point that I'm trying to make here is not that house prices are going to fall tomorrow or even necessarily next year.
It's that over the next 5 to 10 years, on an after-inflation basis...
Your home simply isn't going to be that great a form of wealth accumulation.
They want to spend more time sleeping in.
They want to spend more time with a leisure, walking the dog, more time looking after their health, right?
So they're more likely to take their medical leave and all these things.
They're basically more me time, more family time.
Well, if you look at the overall indicators, it kind of looks very similar.
The unemployment rate is below 4% now, just as it was right before the pandemic.
The share of the population that's in the workforce, what we call the participation rate, that's around the same as it was before the pandemic.
And if you look at how fast wages are growing, if you subtract inflation, that rate of increase in real wages is also around the same.
But if you actually look below the surface, you see big, big changes, changes in attitudes that tell us that work is just not as central to the lives of people as it used to be.
Partly, you can see that in the number of hours that people work, for example.
Showing 181–200 of 528 · page 10 of 27
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