Greg Poling

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344 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 9 Jul

Greg Poling’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Pekingology · Avoiding War in the South China Sea · 9 Jul 2026 podcast

So China

is engaged in a normative competition with the US and US allies and partners, and it cannot win that normative competition if some critical mass of the international community writes it off as a bully and a rogue state.

that's that does give us a lever that we can pull that doesn't really exist in the Russia case, because Russia, whatever it might think, is not a normative power.

It doesn't offer any viable normative to the US, and it doesn't really try to.

But while I think that's important to keep in mind, and we should work at it, we should also remember that the most important part, the most important effect of all these transparency efforts and the public diplomacy, is mostly stiffening spines in the international community, rallying support for the Philippines and Vietnam, Malaysia, and others.

And you've seen that have real payoff for the Philippines over the last just four years.

The number of countries who have publicly called for transparency.

To comply with the arbitral award has more, has almost quadrupled over the span of the Marcos administration because the transparency effort launched by the Philippines has really brought in not just the Europeans, but the Indians, the Koreans.

And so I think that will continue to pay dividends.

And it'll not just result in diplomatic support, but it helps facilitate a lot of the operational coordination we're seeing between Japan, Philippines, Australia.

Australia, Philippines, France, Philippines, etcetera.

If we must.

So I will not go through all fourteen points that the Philippines.

The most noteworthy thing is that the Philippines brought fifteen claims against China and it won fourteen and a quarter of them.

There was three quarters of one claim that the court didn't find jurisdiction.

So it was this is not some contested narrow victory.

This was an overwhelming victory.

The key parts are and I think the most important for the outside parties one, the court ruled that the whole conceit of historic rights is nonsense.

It doesn't have any grounding international law, and if it ever did, it was extinguished the day that China ratified the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea.

So all of this stuff that the US cares about on freedom of the seas.

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