Greg Poling
speaker
344 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 9 Jul
Greg Poling’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
They've come up with a kind of series of increasingly complex and so far unsuccessful efforts to justify the claim that without w moving beyond the language that kind of everybody outside of the PRC now knows is bunk because of the award.
International awards are overwhelmingly complied with, even by great powers, for a reason, and that's that they do kind of have a malignant effect on your standing in the international community.
They do eat away at the legitimacy that you need to get acquiescence on whatever your preferred norms and rules and standards are.
So I do think that this hurts China and will continue to hurt China as long as the Philippines and its friends
some partners continue to talk about it.
The number of countries that support it will continue to grow.
I think we'll see as the Philippines becomes increasingly cynical about hopes of any negotiated settlement with China, particularly this year, as the code of conduct talks fail yet again during the Philippines Asian chair, you'll see the Philippines bring this up more and more in, say, the UN, I think pursue additional arbitrations.
And we've seen this work time and time again.
It worked against the US when Nicaragua did it.
It took ten years, but the US did finally comply with an ICJ ruling that it had walked away from under Reagan.
I think we're seeing it work in real time against the UK in the case of the Mauritius case over Chagos, where Mauritius has won three different arbitrations and multiple UN votes.
We saw it work against Russia when it lost the Arctic Sunrise case now twelve years ago to the Netherlands.
In all these cases, the bigger power complies without ever admitting that's what it's doing, because great powers never admit that they lost, but they do try to make the
make the reputational damage go away.
Yeah, and look, this process could have gone a lot faster if the Philippines had not changed presidents twelve days before the award came out.
If we had a government in Manila who had pushed this award when it was at its maximal kind of exposure in the national mindset in twenty sixteen, you could right now have fifty countries who have publicly endorsed the award.
Instead, the Marcos administration has had to belatedly go back and remind people about the
thing and do the laborious one by one adding ticks to the box.
So even that was Well, the US, the day it was released, endorsed the award in the sense that it's binding on China and the Philippines.
The US only acknowledged in twenty twenty that it agreed with all the merits.
Showing 241–260 of 344 · page 13 of 18
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