Gregory (Greg) Davis

speaker

72 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Dec 2021 last heard Dec 2021

Gregory (Greg) Davis’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Stock Market Outlook: What to Expect in 2022 · 29 Dec 2021 podcast

The second one would really be the fact that the Federal Reserve has signaled they're tightening monetary policy.

So they're doubling the pace of their tapering of their balance sheet.

So that's another headwind.

And it's very likely they're going to start raising interest rates

at the tail end of the tapering, which we're going to expect to start seeing happening sometime in the March, April timeframe of 2022.

So those are some of the headwinds.

And the other one I would just say for listeners is the fact that valuations are still heavily stretched when it comes to equity markets, portions of the fixed income market.

So you're not getting paid to take a lot of risk at this point in time either.

So there's a lot of headwinds out there.

It's a great question, JR.

The markets have already taken that into stride, right?

So I think most folks were coming into the year expecting the Fed's going to hike two times next year.

And that's been basically, you know, increased if you looked at the Fed's dot plot indicating three times in 2022 and potentially three more times in 2023.

But we all know that the Federal Reserve, these are projections based upon all the information and data that they have available today and when they were meeting.

The reality is it's going to be dependent upon how the economy continues to evolve over time, what they see when it comes to employment, what they see in terms of inflation.

So again, it's a best estimate given where conditions are today, but it's going to be fluid.

If the economy ends up

growing at a slower pace.

Inflation ends up tapering a bit more quickly than what they're projecting.

They could end up increasing interest rates at a much slower pace than what's priced in.

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