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Gwern Branwen

👤 Person
855 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

Nothing else really comes near it in terms of traffic.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

That was really quite something to see things kind of go viral like that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

I think I definitely could have been an AI researcher or possibly in management at one of the big AI companies.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

I think I would have regretted not being able to write about stuff, but I would have taken satisfaction in making it happen and putting my thumbprint on it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

Those feel like totally plausible counterfactuals.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

And why didn't you?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

I kind of fell off of that track very early on in my career when I found the curriculum of Java to be...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

excruciatingly boring and painful.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

And so I just dropped out of computer science and that kind of put me off that track early on.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

And then I think various early writing topics made it hard to transition in any other way than starting a startup, which I'm not really temperamentally that suited for.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

Things like writing about the dark net markets or behavioral genetics.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

These are kind of topics that don't really scream great hire to many potential employers.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

Yeah, I think agency is in many senses actually easier to learn than we would have thought 10 years ago.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

But we actually aren't really learning agency at all in current systems.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

There's no kind of like selection for that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

All the agency there is is an accidental byproduct instead of somebody training on data.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

So from that perspective, it's miraculous that you can ask an LLM to try to do all these things and they have a non-trivial success rate.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

If you told people 10 years ago, I think, that you could just behavior clone on individual letters following one by one and then you would get this coherent action out of it and control robots and write entire programs, their jaws would drop and they would just say that you've been huffing too many fumes from DeepMind or something.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

The reason that agency doesn't work is that we just have so little actual training data for it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Gwern Branwen - How an Anonymous Researcher Predicted AI's Trajectory

An example of how you would do agency directly would be like Gato from DeepMind.