Gwynn Guilford
speaker
46 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2020
last heard Sep 2020
Gwynn Guilford’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
You've had tens of millions of people lose their jobs instantly and had to, you know, in many cases, their job has kind of disappeared for a while, hopefully not permanently.
But in some cases, like, you know, certain kinds of retail, leisure, hospitality, live entertainment, their job is gone until, you know, we get the pandemic under control.
So they've had to figure out ways of reinventing themselves.
So far this year, there have been 3.2 million applications for employer ID numbers, and that's what you have to do to start a new business.
And that's up from 2.7 million at the same period in 2019.
And when you look at businesses that are likely to become employers in the future, that's 1.1 million.
And that's up 12% from the same period last year.
And it's getting it's not quite at levels that we were at before the Great Recession, but it's higher that that 1.1 million is higher than we've seen in more than a decade.
It's really hard to tell what exactly is going on because we don't have good real-time data on the scale of business closures.
However, we know enough to know that it's huge.
More businesses have closed in the first three months of the crisis than you usually have in an entire year.
And, you know, it's not like the recovery has picked up that much.
We're on track to have a really just colossal scale of
failures this year.
And while that's devastating for local economies and it's wiped out tens of millions of people jobs, it is probably creating space for new enterprises to fill the void.
So that could be part of why we're seeing a surge in new business creation.
Another aspect is that part of the reason businesses are struggling so much right now, existing businesses, is that the pandemic has changed the way we do business in so many industries.
And that may be creating an opportunity for new entrants to sort of disrupt and upset unseat established firms that are changing their ways too slowly to keep up.
So in some industries, like maybe retail, where things are changing really fast, that could be a factor helping drive new business creation also.
Yeah, so the economists look to the new business creation number as a leading indicator of, you know, a lot of economic conditions more generally, but also, you know, future labor market demand.
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